"Being optimistic about demand recovery is a real problem …" - "Covid-19: Implications for Business," McKinsey, March 2020.
The business impacts of COVID-19 on law and other professional services were sudden.
That's hammered in this Law.com podcast as well as the abrupt announcements about backing off recruiting new lawyers. On Reddit's r/LawSchool, the JD Class of 2020 were on the money to be anxious about their employment situation.
So rapid were the negative developments that some players in those sectors have taken refuge in magical thinking: Recovery, they rushed into assuming, will be fast and robust. After all, the world economy is fundamentally sound. A bad quarter or two? They got that.
That may or may not be true.
But macro positioning doesn't mean much for the near-term survival of both law firms and those they employ. To make it through this and prepare for the post-coronavirus new world order of business, they likely will have to change. The exceptions, of course, are those law firms already with strong practices in restructuring, bankruptcy, workouts, healthcare, employment, insurance, and cybersecurity.
In advertising, for example, there has been a plunge in demand. For Twitter, notes PR News, that has been 20%. Even the giants like Facebook and Google have taken a hit.
In response, across the board in the communications industries, the survivors have developed fresh menus of services. They include creating materials and communications related to COVID-19, documents Vertical IQ.
But shifting gears takes time. The kneejerk interim reaction remains to cut manpower. After all, according to Paycor, the labor expense can represent up to 70% of the business budget.
That means this: Employees who sense they will be axed or have been axed can't embrace optimism.
One former client in the legal sector did that in 2008 and ran out of savings and hope. Eventually, she was hired as a paralegal by a small law firm and that's where she still is.
Another had the opportunity to circle back to his first career path in auto sales. Instead he chased after the past, trying to replicate it. That included seeking out full-time jobs as well as contract work in his specific expertise in law. He also could have developed new expertise in family law but refused to start over again. He was let go from the job he did land and never attracted enough freelance work to support his family. His wife became the breadwinner.
Being realistic about the short- and long-term entails knowing what the resources are, figuring out how to access them, and doing just that. Yes, for instance, get down cold unemployment benefits, how to take full advantage of outplacement, and negotiating landlord-tenant issues. Regarding the latter, some are obtaining concessions on rent.
Ironically then, the Paul Weiss Coronavirus Relief Center, developed by lawyers on a pro bono basis, could mean salvation for lawyers themselves. Those include members of the JD Class of 2020.
Here is how the creator of that platform - Paul Weiss Chairman Brad Karp - describes that comprehensive guide on what help is out there and the buttons to press. Needing so much help is new to too many in this era of COVID-19.
Karp did anticipate the scope of the pain that the pandemic would inflict on workers. That's why he mobilized hundreds of lawyers, pulling all-nighters pro-bono, to develop speedy seamless ways through the mazes of accessing what's needed for today, tomorrow, and, unfortunately, perhpas a few years.
Let's talk turkey. The big lesson from The Great Recession for those in professional services was that income is everything. The more of it the better.
That could mean choosing a decent-paying survival job rather than the 12 weeks left on unemployment. One former client in public relations took an interim job in a call center which provided medical benefits, which he needed for his family. His attitude was good. Eventually he became a supervisor. Then he was promoted to a position in corporate. At that time, he became a client again and was able bypass the age bias.
In contrast, optimism about the fast return of the status quo has destroyed so many. It could do just that again.
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