Research by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo found that for each 1 robot introduced to manufacturing:
- 6 Jobs are eliminated
- Wages drop between 0.25% and 0.50%.
As Recode reports, the number of industrial robots could quadruple by 2025.
Currently, there is a shortage of 100,000 truck drivers. That could be remembered as the golden age of the long-haul driver. The driverless truck will be good-to-go before the driverless car. That's because it involves highway driving, not the stop-and-go of city traffic. Once the robot figures out how to master the exit ramp, it's over for that line of work.
White collar jobs will probably be taken over by robots just as fast.
The Washington Post documents that ROSS, run by IBM's Watson, is doing document review. Lots of it. Software called Legal and CaseText review court cases and predict future rulings. DoNotPay handles parking ticket appeals. And, who knows what's next at the LegalZooms.
JPMorgan has COIN managing loan decisions, replacing both lawyers and loan officers.
At Point72, Steve Cohen is overseeing automating the trader's golden gut.
Proofreaders will be phased out when more traditionalists accept automated grammar checks.
Way back around the turn of the century futurists predicted the few jobs left would be those involving in-person hands-on services. Many of those, such as adult-diaper-changer, are low-paying and low-status. The ones which do pay well tend to be illegal. But they are also low-status. However, both eventually could be replaced by personal care robots.
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