Financial wizard Nassim Taleb brought mainstream the concept of the "Black Swan." That was an unexpected development which proved to be a total game-changer.
The classic example has been the internet. Now, it could well be Brexit and its impact on Campaign 2016 in America.
Brexit has been a stunner to The Establishment around the world. There was a majority vote for the U.K. to split from the EU. And, it could be The Establishment in the U.S. who can be negatively impacted by this development during Campaign 2016.
As journalists at Politico point out, the vote to go splitsville demonstrates the growing power of populism. That same force is taking place in the U.S. and it's what is fueling the Donald Trump campaign. Of course, he could use this to his extreme advantage.
That would be ugly for Hillary Clinton. Of course, she contends she isn't part of The Establishment. But, come on, she's been a politico in her own right since she ran for the U.S. Senate. In terms of politics per se, Trump isn't The Establishment.
On the other hand, this development has so upset the global economy and the domestic one here at home that there could be a recession. The Democrats who are in power will be the scapegoats. And despite the fact that Clinton has been distancing herself from the economic policies of the Obama Administration, voters might not cut her any slack.
However, a severe downturn might not necessarily be a gift to Trump. After all, he is not experienced in macro economics the way Clinton is. And his experience gap in that, when it looks like a brutal recession is on the way, could chase voters into the Clinton camp.
Then, there's the increased uncertainty triggered by the split. That might be too much for voters to bear. They could seek a safe harbor in a known like Clinton.
It will be fascinating how both Trump and Clinton leverage splitsville in the next weeks. Meanwhile we will be hearing plenty about the possible economic ramifications on the U.S. economy.