"People have called the top of this market before and they've always turned out to be wrong," Walter Olson

Today THE AMERICAN LAWYER joins THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, the Dean of New York Law School and sundry other pessimists.  They all declare the golden era over for the legal profession. In their article in THE AMERICAN LAWYER, Aric Press and John O'Connor opine that the past five years have been great ones of law firms.  Now, "The great run may be over."

Specifically, Press and O'Connor point to the few slots for equity partner.  Those high rollers at the top pulled the ladder up behind them.  Deal activity is down. While the litigation and bankruptcy business is there it, they report, "have not yet lifted all boats."  In addition, and what should be of most concern to new JDs, current associates, and partners not in favor, body count is bloated.  When firms feel that bloat on their bottom line, happy days could truly be over.

Such reports, of course, are told with glee by those whose jobs pay lots less than those at BigLaw and carry less status.  However, our faith in the creativity and work ethic of the plaintiff bar would encourage us to entertain another scenario.  That would include no cratering in demand for legal services, at least not the premium kind like required in lead paint public nuisance, pharmaceutical and ongoing tobacco litigation.

Manhattan Institute's Walter Olson put it this way when he was interviewed on tort reform for THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR.  "People have called the top of this market before and they've always turned out to be wrong," said Olson.  His blog Overlawyered.com, which never lacks for fresh material, is a testament to that.

My take is all the financial hand-wringing about BigLaw could be part of a conspiracy to further shrink the slots for equity partner, plain-vanilla partner, plain-vanilla associate, and plain-vanilla interns.  That's an old-line corporate trick which lawyers could use just as profitably.