"It will probably be this year." That's what a solid source opines about when Judge Michael Silverstein will decide on the defense's motions for a dismissal or new trial in the Rhode Island (RI) lead paint trial. "But," the source adds, "it probably won't be until late November or December." According to this source, speculation among all interested parties as well as RI lead paint watchers is intense regarding the when.
Now I'll pile on my speculation and it's about the stock. My hunch is that no matter what Judge Silverstein decides, the impact on the stock of the defendant companies will be minimal, at least long-term. Wall Street has factored in that the litigation process in RI will be ongoing. Clearly, even if the Judge rules against a dismissal or new trial, the defendants are geared up to take the case to the RI Supreme Court. That's why they requested that the Judge review and comment on all the motions, not just the ones on which his overall decision will be based. And, that's what could be taking so much time.
Also, Sherwin-Williams' pre-emptive move in Columbus, Ohio (OH) federal court has also already sent a message to Wall Street that it has gone on the offensive. That lawsuit was filed in early October against cities in OH such as Columbus which were considering suing Sherwin-Williams about lead paint, cities such as East Cleveland and Toledo which had already done so, and cities which might do so in the future (Akron sued after this federal suit was filed). Following this filing, the city of Columbus then asked the federal court not to allow this lawsuit by Sherwin-Williams.
Since Wall Street doesn't like uncertainty, yes, we could see a bounce in the defendant companies' stock when Judge Silverstein makes his decision. If the decision is a dismissal or new trial, it could be a significant bounce. But that's just a temporary adjustment, as the market reacts. Overall, both the aggressive push-back of the 3 defendants post-verdict and Sherwin-Williams' later federal suit have determined the direction of the stock's movements.